The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly leave a deep imprint on the structure of the travel and tourism industry. Collapsing consumer demand, low cash reserves, and a lack of access to flexible lines of credit has forced many smaller travel and tourism operators to close. At the same time, while larger firms such as national airlines, tour operators, cruise lines and nationally branded hotel operators are better positioned to withstand the crisis, they are also facing significant challenges as demand is not recovering anytime soon. While some agile players have repurposed their offering, the pandemic is likely to fuel consolidation – and potentially vertical integration – across the sector. While in the short-term there is a risk of widespread discounting to attract visitors to return, in the medium to long-term consolidation may spur price increases and reductions in the range and quality of services. Consequently, the travel and tourism sector that will emerge from the pandemic is likely to be smaller, in terms of both employment and revenue, than it was before. The process of consolidation and vertical integration is also likely to curtail opportunities provided by the sector for operators from developing countries.

Tourism Key Themes 2025: Growth continues amid greater uncertainty
In this report, we discuss the outlook for tourism in 2025, addressing five key questions: What are the key drivers